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The Bottom Line
By Chad P. Wilson
April 1, 2009
Foundation Bank --
Try Laughing this April Fool’s Day
Volume V Issue IV – April 1, 2009
A monthly financial commentary for our Friends, Clients and Advocates
Well, today is April Fools Day. I don’t know about you, but feel as though the entire 12 previous months have been one big ongoing April Fool’s joke. If that were only the case, we would wake up on April 2 and see the world the way we would like to be. But here we are with a economy and country that look very different than they did one year ago. So, I thought I would take a moment to recount some statements that might have been considered an April Fool’s joke this time last year, but that have since proven to be no joke – but reality.
1. “GE will lose its AAA credit rating.” I would have never believed this one. GE has boasted since this stellar rating since 1956. They are an incredibly diversified company that makes everything from light bulbs to airplane engines. However, their financing arm has been a drag in a global credit crunch, and brought the company new challenges to face for the future.
2. “Berkshire Hathaway will be downgraded.” Warren Buffet has always described his beloved Berkshire Hathaway’s balance sheet as a “fortress balance sheet.” This pristine company just recently had its credit rating downgraded by Fitch because of its exposure to derivatives. It just goes to show that even the strongest of companies are not immune to economic ripples.
3. “Investment Banking will be no more.” Since Bear Sterns failed shortly before April Fool’s last year, this might have been a little more believable. But to think that Lehman Brothers would file bankruptcy, Merril Lynch would be sold, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley would be converted into bank holding companies would have been almost too much to believe. Nonetheless, that is where we are today. The investment-banking model of borrowing from investors short, and lending to others long is gone – for now.
4. “The American Taxpayer will own 80% of AIG.” Surely the biggest insurer in the world wouldn’t get in that bad a shape. Big or not, the complex credit default swaps that AIG sold have fallen apart at the seams. They have since become the poster child (whether justified or not) of the excesses of Wall Street.
5. “The price you pay for gas will be cut in half by this time next year.” This would have been an April Fool’s joke that we would hope for our sake wasn’t a joke. Sure enough, our family budgets are experiencing some relief since the oil bubble popped in October of 2008. Prices can’t move any direction indefinitely. But even if you believed that, would you have believed it would come correct 50% in a couple of months time? What a nice surprise.
My assumption would be that April Fool’s jokes will be in short supply this year. People are not in the mood these days to joke about finances, or much of anything else. We find that pessimism and cynicism are the mood de jour. But let me propose that it just might do us some good to take a break from our seriousness and find someone or something to help us have a few belly laughs. I’ve heard it said that laughter is the best medicine. We might as well give it a try, for I fear that other remedies already in play may have serious side effects down the road.
Chad P. Wilson, CFP Foundation Bank – a division of McKenzie Banking Company - 731-554-2423
The above is strictly informational and does not constitute any sort of recommendation. Please consult your own financial advisor for specific tax, loan, or other investment advice.